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Prospects of the Ontario 2022 Election

 The Ontario leader’s debate has finished as of yesterday. Many Ontario voters are looking to cast their ballots in the coming weeks as advanced polling stations open up, mail-in ballots become successfully delivered to households, and the eventual June 2nd election date comes closer. 


 


Currently, polling data from a plethora has indicated that Doug Ford - the incumbent and premier of Ontario - will most likely retain power and form a government. Whether his win will be a majority or minority is yet to be known. With some polling firms indicate the former, while others indicate the latter.


 


Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative holds a majority in the current parliament. He boasts a whopping 67 seats, a full 5 seats above the needed 62 to gain majority status in parliament. However, Doug Ford does have an unpopularity problem based on current polls, and analysis from the Angus Reid Institute had put him as one of the least popular premiers in the country. How this affects his electability potential among voters is yet to be known. However, it can be seen as a negative for his party.


 


The current opposition leader is the New Democratic Party leader, Andrea Horwath. Who has been the leader of the Ontario NDP since 2009? Although many within the NDP are looking to oust Horwath because of her performance. Horwath nevertheless seems determined to fight for her progressive cause. Her party has 39 seats within the Ontario parliament. Although polling data has suggested that her party will drop to 3rd place in total seats, whether she can retain or gain seats will be up to her campaign capabilities.



The party with the third most seats in parliament are the Ontario Liberals. Who were in power for 15 years before Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives snatched power from them in 2018. The Progressive Conservative win in 2018 came after, polls started to suggest that Ontarians felt a need for change in their province with the Liberals in power for so long; coupled with the unpopular Kathleen Wynne, the Ontario Liberals suffered a heavy loss and dropped to 3rd place in the 2018 election. 


 


However, the Ontario Liberals seem to be making a comeback based on current polling. According to a poll from Abacus polling company, they state that the Ontario Liberals are “within striking distance” of the Progressive Conservatives. Indeed, most polls have indicated that the Ontario Liberals will ascend to second place in parliament if not potentially win the election. 


 


Of course, much of this is variable. A better outlook of the election will be known when we are a week away from the election date.


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