The ongoing peace talks between Ukraine and Russia and Moscow and Kiev are set to resume on February 1st, so it's a good time to start looking at the likelihood of peace breaking out. The chances of peace breaking out in the near term are slim, but that doesn't mean we can discount the possibility entirely. Let's take a look.
There is little chance of an outright military conflict between these two countries in the near term, with Russia still having thousands of troops currently deployed in Crimea, which is now under the control of Kyiv, and periodically shelling some cities from there; this means that public opinion might not be supportive of another invasion. However, Russia can still send more troops to Crimea, and although they don't have any air cover anymore, they could use that territory to launch a cross-border attack deep into Ukraine.
In the near term, the only plausible scenario for an escalation of tensions is if there is some sort of military accident by a drunken Russian soldier or Ukrainian fighter pilot; for example, if one country accidentally flies into another's airspace one side shoots them down. Of course, Russia could also try to set up more puppet states in eastern Ukraine as well.
In the long term, there is a greater possibility that the peace talks will fail. This scenario depends on the outcome of Russia's military action in Syria and what happens with the US election. An Islamist victory in Syria will make President Obama's foreign policy look ridiculous and might cause him to consider another approach to Ukraine. If Republicans win, it will probably also make them more likely to take a hard-line stance against any agreement between Russia and Ukraine.
Ultimately, there is a little chance that war will break out again in just under two months from now; according to various forecasts from Kyiv, March 11th is the most likely date for this event. March 11th is the date that Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatsenyuk said would mark a turning point, which he defined as "either peace or new military operations."
Even if the conflict doesn't resume in the near term, it's still crucial to think about what happens in 5 or 10 years.
It might be possible for Russia and Ukraine to develop a sort of non-aggression pact similar to what happened between Russia and Finland during the Cold War when Finland was officially neutral but allowed Russian troops to enter the country on an occasional basis. Even today, some sources say that Finland may allow Russian troops back into the country, although I doubt it.
In conclusion, it is vital to drag the idea that the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia are set to resume on February 1st. There is little chance of an outright military conflict in the near term. However, Russia can still send more troops to Crimea and launch a cross-border attack on Ukraine from there. In the near term, there is a small chance that peace talks between Ukraine and Russia will lead to a return to conflict. In the long term, this depends on the outcome of Russia's military action in Syria and what happens with the US presidential election. An Islamist victory in Syria would make President Obama's foreign policy look ridiculous.
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