
The China-Taiwan saga has reached a new flashpoint as the United States representative Nancy Pelosi lands in Taipei, against China’s repeated threats. While the United States has repeatedly said that it was an already planned visit to Taiwan for a conversation over Human Rights and even though the US supports Taiwan’s right to self-defence, it does not support its claim to independence - China is taking the arrival of Pelosi as an act of aggression and defiance.
Upon Pelosi’s arrival in Taiwan, China initiated a six-day live-fire exercise around the territorial waters and airspace of Taiwan. J-20 fighter aircraft were seen to practice with conventional ammunition and missiles and warships essentially creating a blockade around Taiwan. Earlier on Chinese social media, a video went viral, where it was seen that Chinese amphibious vehicles are rolling down on a public beach.
While the authenticity of the video is questionable and many experts think that it is staged, it is a clear message of aggression that was posted online. As a part of the American entourage, 4 American warships and an aircraft carrier are on standby east of Taiwan, as a normal deployment.
Also following Pelosi’s visit, China banned a number of Taiwan exports such as agricultural products and natural sand that is used for construction. In spite of the ban, expert says that the export of agricultural products and sand amounts to only 0.6% of the Taiwanese economy, hence the damages will be marginal. Yet, experts are still looking forward to seeing if China also bans the export of Semiconductors and electronics, since Taiwan produces 90% of the world's export, a ban that might actually affect the economy.
Even though Taiwan showed its military capabilities earlier in a Live fire drill on July 28, Pentagon is pessimistic about its ability to win a war against China. According to a report, China’s military capabilities are far superior in both numbers and technology than Taiwan. Even though it will be a daunting task to have a 1v1 full-fledged military assault, China’s probability to win is considerably higher given its Sea and Air supremacy.
But there are serious concerns among the experts upon the arrival of a US representative in Taiwan. Even though, the US states that the visit is not to interfere in the conflict - the projection of strength is particularly hard to miss. Looking at the prior visit of the US representative during the start of the Russo-Ukraine war, the meetings have been mainly about solidarity and weapons export. While the US advertises its neutrality, its actions are speaking otherwise. The question is the degree of support the US will provide Taiwan in case of a military conflict with China.
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