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Predictions And High Hopes: The Awards Season Begins

Several moments within a year are crucial to the cinematic industry, but January beats them all.

Yes, because even if May and September are house to the most glamorous film festivals, like Venice and Cannes, the first month of the year is fundamental if you hope to get a golden statue called Oscar. 


More specifically, the importance related to this month derives from the fact that some of the most important awards ceremonies in the film industry take place in January, along with nominations announcements for others.

Interestingly, the “Oscar race” can be partially predicted by observing who wins what and who is nominated for what at these ceremonies.


But let’s go with the order. 

This week, the world has witnessed the 2023 edition of the Golden Globes, where professionals from the television and film industry are awarded one of the highest prizes in the world. 

Among the candidates for Best Motion Picture, we find some of the most chatted titles, like Elvis, Avatar: The Way of Water, Tàr, Top Gun: Maverick, and Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans, which brought home the prestigious prize.


Alongside Steven Spielberg’s highly anticipated biographical movie, which also won Best Director,  The Banshees of Inisherin also won some of the most important prizes of the night, like Best Screenplay to Martin McDonagh, and Best Actor in a Comedy or Musical, won by Colin Farrell.

Discussing the acting side, Best Actor and Actress in a Drama Film went respectively to Austin Butler for Elvis and Cate Blanchett for Tàr.

Surprisingly, Damien Chazelle’s Babylon only won Best Original Score, thanks to Justin Hurwitz, who previously won two Academy Awards for La La Land.

Finally, the Golden Globes was the night of triumph for Argentina, 1985 which won Best Non-English Language Film, and for Everything Everywhere All at Once, which, among the several nominations, won Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor in a Musical or Comedy, respectively for Michelle Yeoh and Ke Huy Quan.



Crucially, on the same week of the Golden Globes, on January 11, the nominations for the 29th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards, better known as SAG Awards, were announced.

Among the SAG shortlist, we can easily spot some well-known names, like Everything Everywhere All At Once and The Banshees of Inisherin, which tied for the most nominations.

Surprisingly, Spielberg’s The Fabelmans only got nominated for Best Supporting Actor with Paul Dano.

However, these three films are nominated for Best Picture along with Babylon. On the other hand, in the leading actor category, we find Austin Butler and Colin Farrell again. At the same time, the female counterpart, Cate Blanchett, is ready to take another SAGA at home.


In addition to Golden Globes and SAGA, on the 19th, nominations for the British Academy of Film and Television Awards, known as BAFTA, will be made public. 

At the moment, the British delegation has realized the loneliest of the candidates, which, not surprisingly, reflects what we have been seeing since this week.

The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All At Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, and Top Gun: Maverick are all in line for Best Film while also sharing the stage for Leading and Supporting Actress and Actor, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay, and more.

Finally, the last proclamation will take place on Tuesday, January 24, when the nomination for the very much anticipated Academy Awards 2023 will be released. 

Those nominations, though, will come with little surprise because of the level of influence the Golden Globes, SAGA, and BAFTA has on the Oscars.

This process is essential for those who hope you get nominated or win a prize at the Dolby Theatre this March because if you win Golden Globes, SAG Awards, and BAFTA, the probability of you winning an Academy Award is around 100%. 

An involuntary mechanism that makes betting relatively easy, but it also creates many people to discuss the credibility of the Academy, criticizing how much they rely on other prizes. 

However, if you are the best, why should you not win everything? If you think about this process from this point of view, the mechanism appears natural.

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