The recent Serbian parliamentary elections saw the triumph of the ruling coalition, named "Aleksandar Vučić – Serbia Must Not Stop," which holds a firm lead, securing 48% of the votes. The primary driving force behind this coalition is the "Serbian Progressive Party” (SPP), closely affiliated with President Aleksandar Vučić. The coalition takes a populist stance, expressing a keen interest in Serbia joining the European Union while refraining from imposing sanctions on Russia and rejecting the recognition of Kosovo's independence.
In contrast, the pro-European opposition coalition, "Serbia Against Violence” (SAV), garnered 24% of the votes. This coalition emerged following extensive protests that commenced in May after the tragic shooting incident at a Belgrade high school. Advocating for a pro-European stance, the opposition accuses the current government of corruption and positions itself as being "against violence" in general. These forces capitalized on the shock generated by the school shooting, prompting discussions about the necessity for a change in leadership. Notably, the opposition coalition does not support imposing sanctions on Russia and focuses more on domestic policy matters.
In Belgrade, where victory for SAV was not ruled out by analysts, the coalition led by Vučić received 38% of the votes after counting 95%, while the opposition secured 34%. Dissatisfied with the outcome, SAV alleged widespread electoral fraud and plans to rally its supporters to protest the official results. The protests unfolded in Serbia on December 18th. In Belgrade, opposition supporters called for the annulment of election results, as reported by local outlets Politika and Kurir, and the RTC television channel. Opposition leaders Miroslav Aleksić (People's Party) and Marinika Tepić (Party of Freedom and Justice) initiated a hunger strike until the voting results are annulled.
Vučić's coalition improved its electoral performance compared to 2022, thanks to votes from individuals who had previously supported nationalists and political allies of the SPP. The ruling coalition also secured substantial victories in local elections across various regions of the country.
Emerging from a background associated with ultranationalism in the 1990s, Aleksandar Vučić has undergone a strategic political transformation, repositioning himself as a pro-European reformer. However, his leadership has been characterized by critics as marked by concerns over democratic values, media freedom, and transparency. Critics accuse Vučić of consolidating power and stifling dissent, pointing to instances of alleged corruption and cronyism within the government. Despite projecting a populist image and expressing a desire for Serbia to join the European Union, Vučić's political maneuvers and approaches to domestic and foreign policy have raised questions about the sincerity of his commitment to democratic principles. As a dominant force in the ruling coalition, Vučić's influence on Serbian politics remains significant, reflecting the intricate interplay between nationalist sentiments, populist rhetoric, and the pursuit of strategic political goals.
A week before the election, Vučić expressed his aspirations to reclaim Kosovo, indicating his readiness to await the potential reelection of Trump as the U.S. president and conveying sympathy for Vladimir Putin. Specifically, Vučić remarked that Serbia should "withstand" until the upcoming American presidential elections, where he anticipates Trump's victory. He commended Ukraine's setbacks on the battlefield, asserting that the realisation of their inability to defeat Russia militarily will be a transformative development. It is notable that the Serbian military industry is recognized for supplying ammunition to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Vučić also articulated his perspective on the era of Slobodan Milošević's leadership, underscoring the possibility of Kosovo's recovery by adopting Azerbaijan's strategic approach, which involved waiting for "special geopolitical conditions" for 27 years before intervening in Nagorno-Karabakh. Accusing the West of instigating the Kosovo War in 1998, he absolved Milošević of responsibility and utilized the conflict as justification for Russia's intervention in Ukraine.
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