NDP Election Strategy Doesn’t Make Sense

Image Credit: NDP.ca

In September, Jagmeet Singh announced that the NDP would be withdrawing from its supply and confidence deal with the governing Liberals. Singh’s reason for withdrawing is obvious: ahead of a potential election (the latest it can be called is Fall 2025), he wants to separate his NDP from Trudeau’s governing Liberals. By continuing to vote against non-confidence motions though, Canadians see his NDP as closer than ever to the Liberals.

The Conservatives have painted the supply and confidence agreement as a “coalition” between the NDP and Liberals. And, if opinion polls are any indication, this characterization has worked. According to a poll done in July by Abacus Data, prior to Singh ending the Supply and Confidence Agreement, just 18% of Canadians would vote for the NDP. An Abacus poll released on October 13^th, over a month after the NDP’s withdrawal, shows 19% of Canadians would vote for the party. A one percent increase, but within the margin of error.

Since Singh’s September announcement, speculation has been abound about an election. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives have brought forward two non-confidence motions, both of which failed, due to the NDP and Bloc Quebecois voting against it.

If Singh’s goal was to distance himself from the coalition tag, it seems strange that he would vote against a non-confidence motion. The reason for this though is simple- the NDP aren’t ready for an election.

 As noted above, the NDP aren’t polling well. Fundraising is also low when compared to other parties. In 2023, the NDP raised a little over $6 million, compared to the Liberals’ $15 million and the Conservatives’ $35 million. This does not seem to be improving. In the second quarter of 2024, the NDP raised just a little over $1.2 million, compared to the Liberals’ $3.7 million and the Conservatives’ $9.8 million.

The NDP’s decision to vote against the non-confidence motion is even stranger given the fact that the Bloc Quebecois’ Yves-Francois Blanchet announced they would also be voting against it, prior to the NDP’s announcement. The Bloc then added stipulations to its support for the government, including a bill to protect supply management in Canada’s farming industry, and increased pensions for those aged 65-74.

The NDP were worried that if they did vote no-confidence the first time around, and the Liberals refused the Bloc’s demands, they would look foolish voting against the non-confidence motion being proposed the second time.

The Liberals have so far called the Bloc’s bluff and refused to pass its bills.

Singh’s withdrawal from the agreement with the Liberals has obviously not had an immediate effect on Canadians’ voting intentions. His withdrawal from the agreement is too little too late. The NDP should have voted in favour of the non-confidence motions, even at the risk of looking foolish. Now, if the Bloc does introduce a non-confidence motion, the NDP will have no choice but to vote against it if they wish to avoid an election. This will only add to the Conservatives’ coalition accusations.

Another concern of Singh’s is the NDP seeming too close to the Conservatives. They’re placing their concern in the wrong place. The NDP have traditionally been, and like to portray themselves as the party of the working class. Polling indicates that the Conservatives have managed to siphon this important voting bloc from the NDP. According to Abacus Data, 47 percent of Canadians who self-identify as working class intend to vote for the Conservatives, with just 20 percent voting for the NDP. Among lower-class people, it is 39 percent for the Conservatives and 25 percent for the NDP.

The NDP should be more concerned about looking close to the liberals than looking close to the Conservatives. The Liberal’s polling numbers are in the tank. According to an Abacus Data poll from October 13^th, just 22% of Canadians intend to vote for the Liberals. Meanwhile, 43% of Canadians intend to vote for the Conservatives. It seems strange that the NDP would be more concerned about looking close to the Liberals than looking close to the Conservatives.

If Singh’s goal was to gain more leverage over the Liberals, this has also failed. The Liberals have called the Bloc’s bluff because they know that the NDP isn’t ready for an election. They can count on their support in any future non-confidence vote.

The Bloc has since announced that with the Liberals refusing their demands, they will propose a non-confidence motion and attempt to get the NDP on their side. Singh has said he’s not going to “play their games.”

The NDP should have voted non-confidence when the Conservatives proposed their first motion. They could have distanced themselves from the Liberals in the eyes of Canadians and perhaps even shifted some Conservative votes their way. Working-class people who may be dissatisfied with the Liberals, view the NDP as being much of the same.

Canadians want Trudeau gone and they don’t see Singh as a viable alternative. His continued support of the Liberal government further cements this in their minds. The NDP’s strategy is nonsensical, and their current strategy won’t differentiate them from the Liberals.